An Oxford case study explains why SpaceX is more efficient than NASA — Space Business — Quartz

The difference between bespoke quantum leaps and platform power.
— Read on qz.com/emails/space-business/2172377/an-oxford-case-study-explains-why-spacex-is-more-efficient-than-nasa/

“They examine the difference between one-off projects focused on “quantum leaps”—the Space Shuttle or the Space Launch System, say—versus repeatable platforms—containerized shipping, auto manufacturing, and SpaceX’s vehicles. Notably, they insist this isn’t a public-private distinction. Rather, the researchers are focused on organizational principles that lend themselves to successfully delivering transformative projects at scale.”

“Planners behind projects that attempt to achieve a massive gain in a single leap, they posit, enmesh themselves in psychological patterns that lead to failure. They delude themselves in thinking the actual costs of the project will be much less than expected, because if the real costs were known, the projects would never be attempted.”

“Ansar and Flyvberg argue that NASA’s choices reflect a belief in a world that is linear and controlled, where experts have access to the knowledge and tools they need to deal with future risks. SpaceX’s paradigm, instead, sees the world as a dynamic, adaptive system, where responding to a changing future requires flexibility.”

Well, duh.

Screen Playing – Penny Wilson

https://theinternationale.com/pennywilson/2020/05/01/screen-playing/

This is glorious.

If you understand anything about play you will understand that children’s play is the mechanism by which we become human (Battram, Eastbourne play conference 201x).

If you have any interest in the development of humans, you owe it to yourself to download the free PDFs in the right hand margin.

Can a Planet Be Intelligent? Consider the Biosphere – The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/02/biosphere-planetary-intelligence-evolution/622867/

THIS is not woo-woo anymore than Lovelock or Margulis were woowoo.

Maturana would approve of their attempts to describe a self-producing planetary cognition: once you accept the Santiago theory of cognition, it is merely a small, sensible, step to describe the easily observable planetary self-regulation and self-production as cognitive.

I do so wish that academics read outside their own fields more often. Read some Humberto!

adorable naiveté… plans within plans, kites, deadcats, and dogwhistles

here’s a fünné question…

write some systemy comment about unintended consequences, CAS, network effects, blah blah something something Ashby de la Beer Simonyi blah Maturana

Two kinds of CAS: how did I miss this insight?

Whenever I have spoken of ‘complex adaptive system’, CAS, in the past, never had I ever articulated this distinction:

This is the conceptually unified and richly transdisciplinary foundation for the new economic paradigm that we describe in part II of our article[i]. We make a crucial distinction between two meanings of the key term “complex adaptive system”: The first meaning is a complex system that is adaptive as a system(CAS1). The second meaning is a complex system composed of agents following their respective adaptive strategies (CAS2). The key insight of MLS theory is that CAS2 systems do not robustly self-organize into CAS1 systems. Special conditions are required: namely, the whole system must be the unit of selection. Otherwise, lower-level selection forces take over, in the same way that cancers destroy the functional organization of multicellular organisms.

Wow, thinking back, I understood this, but only tacitly. The context of my peregrinations had to serve to indicate whether I was wibbling on CAS2 or CAS1.

PPS: POSSIBLE PRAXIS INSIGHT… What is the unit/chunk/module/holon/VS(or nonVS) that is being selected? Are you sure?


These evonomicks chaps are onto something…https://evonomics.com/the-making-of-rethinking-the-theoretical-foundation-of-economics/

Thank you for accelerating homelessness, profiteering, and general being evil .. An Open Letter to Airbnb. The pitchforks are coming | by Jared A. Brock | Surviving Tomorrow

https://survivingtomorrow.org/an-open-letter-to-airbnb-8b1b58b4ad33

I write to you today in the hope that you will radically re-structure your company before it starts a class war in which you will almost certainly lose the lion’s share of your wealth, your moral conscience, your place in history as innovators instead of oppressors, and you and your family’s physical safety. To be clear, this isn’t a threat—I am a pacifist who never condones violence including war, but I’m also a DNA relative of Marie Antoinette and understand what happens to elites who forget about the masses — so this is a plea to do the right thing before more people, yourselves included, inevitably get hurt by the raging masses who you are making homeless by the millions.
Brian, Joe, Nathan; you started Airbnb with the best of intentions. You couldn’t afford to make rent on your San Francisco apartment, so you bought some air mattresses and served breakfast to your guests. Brilliant.
But things have changed since then. Now you control an $80 billion company that has devoured millions of housing units, evicted countless families, and turned their homes into full-time clerkless hotels, with a promise in your IPO documents to fight democracies in court for as long as you can afford to do so.

Why Not Combat Carbon Emissions With Baby Trees that Emit More Carbon For The First 20 Years, You Cretins

Bored Waitrose weasels with gran stand about as a geography student plants a tiny teeny baby tree that will be a teeny tiny snack tonight for some nearby deer, who are licking their lips as they watch from the bushes

.

“Scientists have debated whether tree planting should be used as a way of combatting carbon emissions, but Mr Waters said there was an urgent need to try new initiatives and the benefits of tree planting go beyond capturing carbon.

“He said: “We are in a climate emergency and that word emergency is really important. We can’t wait for a perfect solution and we have got to try stuff and we’ve got to do it fast.



“”We know trees help deal with flooding, they help your well-being, there’s very good evidence that being around trees reduces your stress and your blood pressure. There’s evidence to show that areas with lots of trees have a lower crime rate.”

“Lee Waters said Wales “cannot wait for the perfect solution” to combat climate change.”

A man standing in a field pausing to recall some more half-read and totally misunderstood bollocks from a spad briefing he fell asleep during.

“There’s evidence to show that areas with lots of trees have a lower crime rate.” Cretinous logic. Maybe he’s right. There’s very little car theft in the Amazon rainforests, very little burglary.

What the idiot doesn’t know is that baby trees are net producers of carbon until they get to their twenties; then they get a job and settle down or something, and make less nasty carbon than they sequester.

FFS

For Forest’s Sake

If you actually care about the planet and yours or other people’s kiddies, this science bloke tells you exactly why it’s a counterproductive crock of shite

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-59220669

.

THE ORIGINAL DRIVEL FROM THE BBC…

Climate change: Free tree offered to every Welsh household
Published6 December 2021

Every household in Wales will be offered a free tree to plant in an effort to help tackle climate change.

People will have a choice of native species to plant in their gardens or have added to woodland on their behalf.

About 1.3 million trees will be made available by the Welsh government, in a scheme which will cost £2m.

Deputy climate change minister Lee Waters said the scheme could help, but there still needed to be a greater increase in planting trees.

“To meet our climate change targets, we have to plant 86 million trees by the end of this decade,” he said.

Every household in Wales will be offered a free tree to plant at home or in a woodland
“That’s an increase every year of 15-fold. So it’s a hell of a challenge, as well as a climate emergency.”


Scientists have debated whether tree planting should be used as a way of combatting carbon emissions, but Mr Waters said there was an urgent need to try new initiatives and the benefits of tree planting go beyond capturing carbon.

He said: “We are in a climate emergency and that word emergency is really important. We can’t wait for a perfect solution and we have got to try stuff and we’ve got to do it fast.

“We know trees help deal with flooding, they help your well-being, there’s very good evidence that being around trees reduces your stress and your blood pressure. There’s evidence to show that areas with lots of trees have a lower crime rate.”

Lee Waters said Wales “cannot wait for the perfect solution” to combat climate change.


Jerry Langford, of Coed Cadw – the Woodland Trust in Wales – said he was confident people would succeed in nurturing trees in their gardens.

“Trees are tough actually,” he said, “you’ve got to treat them pretty badly to kill a tree. So just a bit of tender loving care and it will be fine.

“They need a supply of water and they need to need to make sure they don’t get swamped by competing vegetation.”

The trees will be available from five hubs from March, with a further 20 in the autumn of 2022.

Coed Cadw will plant the trees which people opt not to have in their gardens.

Fix the Konnections, don’t try to fix the Nodes!—an insight from NK network theory

for Ben Taylor and Rory Heap. Rory, it’s a completely inaccessible photo of an article about women in the workplace and confidence and be the best you you can never be you go girl etceteraah…

Let’s see if Bill Gateses’s MagicEye can read that ..

He’s losing control.

Mainly Hes, and increasing numbers of Shes.

Control.

The ancients believed that they had angered the gods when there was a natural disaster.

Managers believe that they have angered the shareholders when things outside of their control occur. They call them ‘failure’ and search for a chain of causation, a process that is essentially entrail reading.

Fantasies of control.

Consequences of fantasies.

Matryoska CAS… systems within systems, plans within plans, complex adaptive systems within complex adaptive systems. Not bragging but I foresaw this in 1997.

www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/10/facebook-papers-outrage-machine/620556/

I’m too old and tired to write my explanation here, sorry. You could start by reading or rereading my book Navigating Complexity.

Here’s the gist: autopoietic systems feedback and amplify. As a system gets bigger it reaches a bifurcation point. Eventually like, say Microsoft v. Apple v Novell v Linux you get a shakeout… one biggy, one ten percenter and minnows. Read Brian Arthur. Read up on N-K networks. Yada yada. Now imagine that at every level. Stafford Beer on acid.

Facebook, the reviled financial corporate entity currently being set up as the proxy fallguy for January 6th (or do I mean 1/6, you know, like 9/11), contains at least 3 nested overlapping CAS. Facebook users are tiny agents in a seethe of nested venned CASes, like 514000 species of bacteria in a mouth ulcer exchanging DNA like pokemon cards in a schoolyard or bodily fluids in an orgy. Try blaming a single, singular lone gunman bacterium that started it all, for any value of ‘it’. Guffaws.

I’d love government to regulate social media. But first you people need to have some glimmer of understanding of what the fuck these ‘internet’ ‘social’, ‘media’ actually are. I can’t tell you, I don’t have answers but I do have way way better questions than you clowns. You need to navigate complexity.

Right now you are up shitcreek without a paddle. You can paddle with your hands, ugh, but you’ll get nowhere without a map and a compass. You need to understand complexity. You have by now understood that you can’t manage it, now you need to learn to navigate it. Damn shame my book is out of print.

Message found in a bottle of snake oil, in the Sargasso sea…

A friend of mine said, in a lovely,erudite presentation to some very smart folk:

“a weakness of my current thinking is a lack of explicitly encompassing the group, the social.”

Totally agree, we all lack this.

Re-examine page 49 of ‘Navigating Complexity: the essential guide to complexity theory in business and management’, written by myself.

Then think about that botanical nostrum – Early Years textbooks teach that there are three kinds of play in young humans and many mammals: 

  • individual play
  • parallel play
  • social play

Know that this is botany – classifying plants by the shape of their leaves. We observe the spots of a leopard, but what is the mechanism that creates them?

What are the primitives, the atomic irreducible processes that underly the phenomena?

We do not have a language to describe phenomena in groups. I  suspect they are incommensurable, like weather prediction after Lorenz.

We do not have a language to describe phenomena in groups.

This has hamstrung playwork, education, professional football, orchestral performance, NASA budgetary oversight inquiries, Air Accident Investigation, Corporate Fraud Investigation, etcetera etcetera.

There are clues in the Miles Davis approach to group play.

There are clues in Taoism, and Zen.

But as Sapir, Whof and Wittgenstein, and probably Gibson (JJ not W) would tell you, language shapes thought and we do not have the language. 

Try explaining how to put oil into a car without using any car-related, or engine-related words. Go on, try it. Write it down, now go through it and strike out any car-related and engine-related words that crept in. We don’t have a big enough RAM, our short-term memory, to hold even one sentence of the resulting tedious arm-waving stuttering verbiage.

Why doesn’t the world move when I shake my head?

~~~~~~



M’learned friend also said:

“This has many implications, but that main one is that we should judge education by the value created for stakeholders (laudate Tom) – this is fittingly complex and circular. 

NO NO NO, NO!

Very pleased that you rate teecha Tom.

Not stakeholders, feck stakeholders. Leave that to the Tory Goovey Gradgrindians.

I  think you might mean participants? If so then I‘ll semi-agree.

How would you judge a Beth Chatto garden? Answer that and you’ll know how to judge education .

~~~

Read Seedstock by Frank Herbert… full text here… https://momentoftime.wordpress.com/2013/07/16/seed-stock-frank-herbert/

I  cannot link to that story without rereading it, and when I  reread it, I  cannot help but be moved to tears.

~~~

Koan for you: “how can we value things without judging them?” asked the abbot.

Answers on a postcard to my fastness by Ruabon mountain, please, or via ‘e-mail’.

~~~

Smaller Mirrors: shrinking containers, the senescence phase

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/04/republicans-democrats-politics-homeless

trader culture in politics. Jane Jacobs

Adjacent possibles, brittleness fitness landscape. Stuart Kauffman

Life cycles

Evolution only goes forward, like politicians

All things pass gas (apologies to George Harrison)